Rochdale 4-0 Aldershot Town - Saturday 29th March 2025 (Match Day Thread)

[Silasgoldeen]

Lose to fylde on Saturday because of pure stupidity and come 5 o’clock Saturday evening we could be 5 points clear of the drop having been 10 points clear 24 hours ago, totally brainless idea

Could lose to fylde at full strength. It's all about which hypothetical you want to get most worked up about

Sorry Silas but I feel I have to say you are completely wrong here. It’s not that we COULD lose at full strength, It’s that we are far MORE LIKELY to lose if not at full strength.

How's it wrong? Of course we're more likely to lose. But it's a trade off. They need to decide what they want to compromise on. Risk management is about low odds events, right? But you still have to think about them and react to them.

There's a tiny chance we get relegated as things stand.
That chance increases a small amount of we lose to Fylde.
That chance increases a small amount if we rest a player, and a bit more if we rest more players.
But in resting those players they will be sharper for the weekend, and in some cases you might be worried that a player is such a risk that you want to wrap him up in cotton wool until Saturday. (see Dan Ellison and Tyler Frost perhaps).

Somewhere in all of this are a series of decisions and probabilities. We all have a view, and for most of us the view is that survival is the most important thing. So with that in mind we play the strongest possible team on Tuesday. This maximises league points but potentially compromises Saturday.

Tommy may take the view (I don't think he will) that we are now safe, that the fylde game doesn't matter, but Wembley is a memory that'll last forever. In that scenario he rests a few key players, just to have them at their sharpest at the weekend.

Again, he may not be correct in doing this but it's a view isn't it? The point here is that we don't know the impact of these decisions either way. The staff know how the players are feeling so can take a slightly more educated perspective. And that will almost certainly dictate what we see on Tuesday.

[Old Bob]

Sorry, Peter, but that is the falsest of false analogies. There is simply no sensible equivalence between delivering letters and playing professional sport. Delivering letters is not a highly competitive occupation in which the consequences of performing below par because of fatigue, carrying an injury, etc. could be relegation of your team, getting dropped and transfer listed, that sort of thing. Playing twice a week is not the whole job either. There's training to factor in, travel to away games, team talks etc.

Of course what I do doesn’t compare but they should be fit enough to play twice a week surely

Of course they are but if they can see that Hargreaves is running 10% slower at the end of the season and covering 10% less ground they decide what that means. He obviously *can* play but if he's not at his best they have a decision to make. If they rest him a few days and he gets nearer to 100% then that's something to think about. These are made up numbers but they'll have a view.

Nobody's saying they can't play but there's a reason the top teams have big squads now and it's not just because the poor lambs are sometimes feeling a bit tired. It's because the margins are so very fine that having knackered players is a real handicap. Again, we don't know how much of a handicap but the coaches will have a view and there'll be a tipping point for everyone.

Well put, Silas. Thank you. I was going to reply to Peter m. in pretty much those same terms, but you have saved me the bother.

[Old Bob]

Could lose to fylde at full strength. It's all about which hypothetical you want to get most worked up about

Sorry Silas but I feel I have to say you are completely wrong here. It’s not that we COULD lose at full strength, It’s that we are far MORE LIKELY to lose if not at full strength.

How's it wrong? Of course we're more likely to lose. But it's a trade off. They need to decide what they want to compromise on. Risk management is about low odds events, right? But you still have to think about them and react to them.

There's a tiny chance we get relegated as things stand.
That chance increases a small amount of we lose to Fylde.
That chance increases a small amount if we rest a player, and a bit more if we rest more players.
But in resting those players they will be sharper for the weekend, and in some cases you might be worried that a player is such a risk that you want to wrap him up in cotton wool until Saturday. (see Dan Ellison and Tyler Frost perhaps).

Somewhere in all of this are a series of decisions and probabilities. We all have a view, and for most of us the view is that survival is the most important thing. So with that in mind we play the strongest possible team on Tuesday. This maximises league points but potentially compromises Saturday.

Tommy may take the view (I don't think he will) that we are now safe, that the fylde game doesn't matter, but Wembley is a memory that'll last forever. In that scenario he rests a few key players, just to have them at their sharpest at the weekend.

Again, he may not be correct in doing this but it's a view isn't it? The point here is that we don't know the impact of these decisions either way. The staff know how the players are feeling so can take a slightly more educated perspective. And that will almost certainly dictate what we see on Tuesday.

I don't think it's necessarily the case that "resting" players means they will be sharper for the next game. My own experience of playing sports (a long time ago), work in a highly demanding job (a bit more recent) and life in general is that a "rest" can have exactly the opposite consequence, making it hard for you to get motivated again and perform at top level.

[Silasgoldeen]

Sorry Silas but I feel I have to say you are completely wrong here. It’s not that we COULD lose at full strength, It’s that we are far MORE LIKELY to lose if not at full strength.

How's it wrong? Of course we're more likely to lose. But it's a trade off. They need to decide what they want to compromise on. Risk management is about low odds events, right? But you still have to think about them and react to them.

There's a tiny chance we get relegated as things stand.
That chance increases a small amount of we lose to Fylde.
That chance increases a small amount if we rest a player, and a bit more if we rest more players.
But in resting those players they will be sharper for the weekend, and in some cases you might be worried that a player is such a risk that you want to wrap him up in cotton wool until Saturday. (see Dan Ellison and Tyler Frost perhaps).

Somewhere in all of this are a series of decisions and probabilities. We all have a view, and for most of us the view is that survival is the most important thing. So with that in mind we play the strongest possible team on Tuesday. This maximises league points but potentially compromises Saturday.

Tommy may take the view (I don't think he will) that we are now safe, that the fylde game doesn't matter, but Wembley is a memory that'll last forever. In that scenario he rests a few key players, just to have them at their sharpest at the weekend.

Again, he may not be correct in doing this but it's a view isn't it? The point here is that we don't know the impact of these decisions either way. The staff know how the players are feeling so can take a slightly more educated perspective. And that will almost certainly dictate what we see on Tuesday.

I don't think it's necessarily the case that "resting" players means they will be sharper for the next game. My own experience of playing sports (a long time ago), work in a highly demanding job (a bit more recent) and life in general is that a "rest" can have exactly the opposite consequence, making it hard for you to get motivated again and perform at top level.

sure so that's another factor. It'll all depend on the individuals. Some will want to play through and keep the momentum going, others, to borrow the manager's phrase, may at this point be "running on empty", in which case they might be rested. Anyway this is all getting a bit niche by now. I'm sure he'll pick a strong team. There aren't enough fit players to do much of a rotation now anyway.

[Silasgoldeen]

Someone studied something along these lines, looking at players who played in the 2002 world cup and how many matches they'd played in the weeks leading up to it.

Results: The number of team matches during the season varied between 40 and 76 for the different countries involved. The individual player had a mean of 36 matches during the season. Top players played more matches, especially during the final period of the season. Players who participated in the World Cup played more matches during the season than those who did not (46 v 33 matches). World Cup players did not show any increased risk of injury during the season. About 29% incurred injuries during the World Cup, and 32% performed below their normal standard. The players who underperformed had played more matches during the 10 weeks before the World Cup than those who performed better than expected (12.5 v 9, p<0.05). Twenty three (60%) of the 38 players who had played more than one match a week before the World Cup incurred injuries or underperformed during the World Cup.

So again, it's not willingness to play, it's the impact that continuing to play when tired has on your ability to do a good job when you do play. Anyway, who knows?

[Red hot shot]

We have a squad for a reason. Rotate the likes of Hargreaves, Barham, Barrett etc and keep the rest as strong as possible.

[Aldershot]

BBC Radio Surrey Commentary - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9X27itdkoZc

[redblueuptoyou]

After losing 4-0 at the weekend, you wouldn’t be surprised to see a few changes anyway - tiredness or not!

Can see Big Man Theo and Thomas starting.

[Alex]

Just watched the highlights.

Looked like a shambolic effort.

If I had travelled on Saturday I’d be very annoyed after seeing that performance!

[Accurate Shot]

Not surprised at the loss. I thought the Dale were easily the best team seen at the Rec this season. Gave us a real schooling that day.

[Aldershot]

Pitchside Angle - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iiVc4v3yU_s